'Oil demand falls by 2030'

IEA: ‘Turbulent times for global oil market’

De wereldwijde vraag naar olie zal tot het einde van dit decennium blijven groeien. Daarna wordt een daling verwacht.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand will decline slightly by 2030. This will be the first decline since the 2020 corona pandemic, the IEA reported in its latest Oil 2025 report.

Global oil demand will continue to rise until the end of the decade. The peak is expected in 2029, at 105.6 million barrels per day. In 2030, demand falls slightly to 105.5 million barrels per day. The slowdown is caused by weaker economic growth, global trade tensions, the rise of electric cars and oil substitution in the power sector, according to the IEA.

Oil demand in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, is expected to peak this year and start declining in 2026, the report said. However, the IEA did raise its forecast for US oil demand in 2030 by 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous forecast. Cheaper petrol and a slower shift to electric vehicles are boosting oil consumption in the US.

Demand from China, the world’s largest importer of oil, will peak in 2027. From 2028, demand falls due to the surge in electric vehicle sales and the deployment of high-speed trains and natural gas trucks in the country.

Geopolitical risks

According to IEA director Fatih Birol, oil markets appear “well supplied” in the coming years. However, he does point to geopolitical risks to oil supplies in the Middle East, particularly due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. Global oil production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day to 114.7 million barrels per day by 2030, according to the IEA, provided no major disruptions occur.

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This article was automatically translated from the Dutch language original to English (British).

Author: Nina Koelewijn

Source: MobilityEnergy.com

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