‘Grid congestion doesn’t have to slow electric transport growth’

The Netherlands is heading towards a largely all-electric mobility system. To enable this growth, the charging infrastructure needs to be expanded and the power grid needs to be used more intelligently. This is according to ElaadNL’s new Outlook Mobility 2026, commissioned by the National Charging Infrastructure Agenda (NAL).

According to the Outlook, the number of electric vehicles will grow strongly in the coming decades. By 2050, the Dutch passenger car fleet is expected to consist of around 11 million electric cars. The fleet of 1.2 million delivery vans will also be fully electric by then. Moreover, of the estimated 210,000 trucks on the road in 2050, 90 per cent will be fully electric.

More electric vehicles on the road also means greater demand for charging infrastructure. Grid congestion need not stand in the way of this development, provided the available capacity is used more intelligently, the researchers argue. Among other things, they point to higher occupancy rates of existing charging points and expanding charging locations without additional grid capacity.

Outside the evening peak

According to the researchers, charging electric vehicles outside the evening peak hours of 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. can significantly reduce the load on the grid. When cars are plugged in longer than necessary to charge, part of the power demand can be shifted to times when the grid is less loaded. In this way, mobility can provide up to 6.7 gigawatts of flexible power during the evening peak, according to calculations.

That could rise to 11.2 gigawatts if bi-directional home charging is also widely adopted, where cars not only consume electricity but also feed power back to a home or the grid. Although this technology is still fairly much in its infancy, the researchers say it can make an important contribution to absorbing peaks in supply and demand.

However, this requires clear preconditions, including standardisation, interoperability between systems, appropriate incentives for users and cooperation between grid operators, governments and market players. Without those preconditions, a significant part of the potential will remain unused, the Outlook says.

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• ‘The time of non-commitment to smart charging is over’